Risk Management

MSc PROJECT MANAGEMENT

 

Risk Management in Projects

The assignment is 100% of your Module Assessment.

 

 

You must adhere strictly to the word specified for each question.

Marks will be awarded based on the following criteria:

 

• Your understanding of the main themes of the lectures. All questions has unequal marks and mapping of learning outcomes score marks as well.
• All fonts should be Arial Style, 1.5 sentence spacing, Justify, Main Heading 16, Sub-Heading 14, Body-12 font size. Please adhere to report requirement
• Evidence that you have read additional material and refer (using references) to the contributions from relevant authors in the field.
• Clear structure and presentation of the computer generated outputs and their analysis i.e. professional technical report layout should be adopted.
• Report should be in .doc or .docx and only one .xls should be submitted. The .pdf file are not accepted. E-submission, NO E-mail submission is accepted
• Report should have each question outcome and Learning outcomes mapping sheet
• Citation and references (Harvard Style) are very critical for all parts of the Assignment (if required).

·         All answers, drawing (including decision tree, Bayes rule formula) should be word processed.

·         You are expected to submit the excel sheet. You are required to export all the results to word document. No screenshots

·         If you need 7-day or long  extension, you can apply for short-extension form available on https://www.tees.ac.uk/sections/stud/handbook/extenuating_circumstances.cfm

 

 

 

 

 

Question 1-20 Marks

The PDC is a government agency tasked with supporting the development of the Oman economy. One of PDC`s key strategies is to support the diversification of the economy away from a reliance on oil. One of the initiatives under considerations is the construction of a new business complex. The complex will be located near the international airport and will consist of a number of purpose built business units. PDC is also expected to maximize the financial return on the project. However, PDC is facing some uncertainty particularly in relation to the expected demand for units in the complex. PDC president gave two possible chance event outcomes: a strong demand and a weak demand.

S1 = strong demand for the units

S2 = weak demand for the units

As a result of this uncertainty, PDC has commissioned three alternative plans for the complex:

D1 = to build a small complex of 30 business units

D2= to build a medium sized complex of 60 units

D3=to build a large complex of 90 units.

	State of nature
Decision Alternative	Strong Demand S1	Weak Demand S2
Small complex,D1	8	7
Medium Complex,D2	14	5
Large Complex,D3	20	-9

Table show, payoff table for the PDC project (in million Rials)

Draw a decision tree. PDC is optimistic about the potential for the complex, Suppose that this optimism leads to an initial subjective probability assessment of 0.8 that demand will be strong(S1) and corresponding probability of 0.2 that demands will be weak (S2), Calculate the expected value for each of the three decision alternatives and draw a decision dree. What is the recommended decision using the decision tree with expected value? and why? Now, PDC to make the best possible decision, they want to see additional information about the states of nature. So PDC is considering market research study designed to learn more about potential market acceptance of the PDC project. Management anticipated that the market research study will provide one of the following two results:

1.    Favourable report: A significant number of the individuals contacted express interest in purchasing or leasing a PDC unit.

2.    Unfavourable report: Very few of the individuals’ contacted express interest in purchasing or leasing a PDC unit.

Draw a Decision tree using the market research study. Now, PDC have anticipated below probabilities,

If the market research study is undertaken:

P(Favourable report)=0.77

P(Unfavourable report)=0.23

If the market research report is favourable:

P(Strong demand given a favourable report)=0.94

P(Weak demand given a favourable report)=0.06

If the market research report is unfavourable:

P(Strong demand given a unfavourable report)=0.35

P(Weak demand given a unfavourable report)=0.65

If the market research report is not undertaken, the prior probabilities are applied. Calculate the expected value for each of the three decision alternatives and draw a decision dree. What is the recommended decision using the decision tree with expected value and why?

Bayes` Rule: A printer manufacturer obtained the following probabilities from a database of test results. Printer failures are associated with three types of problems: hardware, software, and other (such as connectors) with probabilities of 0.1, 0.6, and 0.3 respectively. The probability of a printer failure given a hardware problem is 0.9, given a software problem is 0.2 and given any other type of problem is 0.5. If a customer enters the manufacturer`s website to diagnose a printer failure, what is the most likely cause of the problem?

Part 1-Outcomes- 1 mark	Page Number
Introduction to problem
Decisions Tree without EMV
EMV with Decision Tree and Discussion
Decision Tree, EMV and  Final Decision and Discussion
Byes Rule problem
Byes Rule two outcomes and discussion

 

(Maximum 500 words)

 

 

 

 

 

Question 2-25 Marks

In Week 5 and 6(using the Decision Making Examples manual), you developed a breakeven analysis  for Quality Sweaters company, sells hand-knitted sweaters The company is planning to print a catalogue of its products and undertake a direct mail campaign. The objective of the model is to determine the company’s profit and to see how sensitive the profit is to the response rate from the mailing. Now, use the fully developed spreadsheet (after completing the manual) and perform below changes on the model,

1.    Export all the results and discussions to below questions

How does a change in the response rate affect profit?

For what response does the company break even?

If the company estimates a response rate of 3%, should it proceed with the mailing?

2.    Continuing the previous problem use goal seek for each value of number mailed (once for 80000, once for 90000 and so on). For each, find the response rate that allows the company to break even.

3.    In the quality sweaters model, the range E9:E11 does not have a range name. Open your completed Excel file and name this range Costs. Then look at the formula in cell E12. It does not automatically use the new range name. Modify the formula so that it does.

4.    As the quality sweaters problem is now modelled, if all inputs remain fixed except for the number mailed, profit will increase indefinitely as the number mailed increased. This hardly seems relative- the company could become infinitely rich. Discuss realistic ways to modify the model so that this unrealistic behaviour is eliminated.

 

Part 2-Outcomes- 1 mark	Page Number
Provide discussion on the company objective? Exports of results, representation, results, discussion and citations, if any.
Changes to spreadsheet with mailed number changes and goal seek solutions for each output. Response rate, break even points and discussions
Changes to cell, naming the cell, changes to the formula and outputs, if any. Discussion on changes, if any.
Changes to the model, outputs if any, their effect on the company and logical/realistic discussions on the unrealistic behaviour.

 

(Maximum 500 words)

 

Question 3-20 Marks

RMC,inc., is a small firm that produces a variety of chemical products. In a particular production process, three raw materials are blended (mixed together) to produce two products; a fuel additive and a solvent base. Each kilo of fuel additive is a mixture of 0.4 kilos of material 1 and 0.6kilos of material 3. A kilo of solvent base is a mixture of 0.5kilos of materials 1, 0.2 kilos of materials 2 and 0.3kilos of material 3. After deducting relevant costs, the profit contribution is £40 for every kilo of fuel additive produced and £30 for every kilo of solvent base produced. RMC`s production is constrained by a limited availability of the three raw materials. For the current production period, RMC has available the following quantities of each raw material:

Raw Material	Amount Available for production
Material 1	20 kilos
Material 2	5 Kilos
Material 3	21 Kilos

 

Assuming that RMC is interested in maximising the total profit contribution,

1.    answer the following:

(a)  What is the linear programming model for this problem?

(b)  Find the optimal solutions using the graphical solutions procedure. How much kilos of each product should be produced, and what is the projected total profit contribution?

(c)  Is there any unused material? If so, how much?

(d)  Are there any redundant constraints? If so, which ones?

2.    Produce an Excel model and use Solver to replicate the hand calculation.

Part 3-Outcomes- 1 mark	Page Number
Linear programming model problem statement.
Discussion data, constraints type and objectives
Analytical equations with condition forms
Co-ordinates for graphs, Graphical representation, Feasible region hatching, graph scanned or excel output
Final number for each product should be produced and discussion
Spread sheet model and solver solution output

 

(maximum 500 words)

 

 

 

 

Question 4-25 Marks

 

Refer to the Table 1 and do the following:

 

Table 1: All O,ML,P are in work days.

Activity No	Task Name		Optimistic Duration	Most Likely Duration	Pessimistic Duration	Immediate Predecessor
1	Team meeting		0.5	1	1.5
2	Hire Contractors		6	7	8	1
3	Network Design		12	14	16	1
4	Order Ventilation system		18	21	30	1
5	Install Ventilation system		5	7	9	4
6	Order new racks		13	14	21	1
7	Install racks		17	21	25	6
8	Order power supplies and cables		6	7	8	1
9	Install power supplies		5	5	11	8,12
10	Install cables		6	8	10	8,12
11	Renovation of data centre		19	20	27	2,3
12	City inspection		1	2	3	2,5,7
13	Facilities		7	8	9	10
14	Operations/System		5	7	9	10
15	Operations/Telecommunications		6	7	8	10
16	System & applications		7	7	13	10
17	Customer service		5	6	13	10
18	Power check		0.5	1	1.5	9,10,11
19	Install test servers		5	7	9	1,2,13,14,15,16
20	Management safety check		1	2	3	5,18,19
21	Primary systems check		1.5	2	2.5	20
22	Set date for move		1	1	1	21
23	Complete move		1	2	3	22

 

 

1. Calculate the Expected time, mean time.
2. Develop the Network diagram using the expected time and use PERT Analysis to know the mean and Sd of the project.
3. Based on these estimates and the resultant expected project duration of 69 days. The executive committee wants to know what is the probability of completing the project before a scheduled time of 68 days?
   All calculations should be carried out using excel sheet and exported to MS-Word.

 

4. How do you measure project risk exposure? Explain and propose ways to reduce the project risk exposure.          

 

(Maximum 500 words)

                                                                 

Part 4-Outcomes-1 mark	Page Number
Simple Excel model with description, Network Diagram
Project Duration, mean of the project, Sd of the Project,
Probability of competition  68 days
Project risk exposure discussion

 

Learning Outcomes Mapping Sheet- 6 marks

ID	Learning Outcomes	Pages
L1	Communicate complex academic and professional issues clearly to specialist and non-specialist audiences.
L2	Demonstrate competency in the numeracy and IT skills in ways that are appropriate to the professional context of project management
L3	Collaborate effectively with others in ways appropriate to the professional context and the demands of   project management.
L4	Demonstrate a comprehensive and critical understanding of  risk, risk mitigation, probability theory, PERT, MCS and IT application in risk analysis
L5	Demonstrate a systematic and critical understanding   within risk mitigation and understanding of how techniques are used to interpret the risk factors in projects.
L6	Integrate and synthesise diverse knowledge, evidence, concepts  theory and practice to resolve the risk in projects
L7	Make logical and arguable conclusions on the basis of incomplete and/or contested data in the Simulation, MCS and Sensitivity analysis in  projects or management
L8	Demonstrate technical skills on probability theory, distributions, and data analysis and propose collective suggestion at a professional or equivalent level.
L9	Can act autonomously in identifying, adopting and implementing techniques, balance, write and   evaluate outcomes in risk relating to project management at a professional or equivalent level.
L10	Operate ethically in a complex and unpredictable and specialised situation with a critical understanding of the issues governing good practice in the field

 

 

 

 

 

University Assessment Marking Criteria

 

Band	FHEQ level 7 (Level M) Criteria
90-100%	An excellent critical and complete demonstration of understanding in all key areas of knowledge relevant to the work and demonstrating an innovative and creative approach. Evidence throughout the work of a sustained ability to synthesise and interpret complex concepts, to make inferences and to provide an original and/or compelling argument and discussion. Excellent structure and immaculate presentation, with cogent use of academic language and grounded in a pertinent and substantial selection of source materials. Excellent use of appropriate analytical and research methods and addresses ethical considerations in an informed and perceptive manner.  Exceptional ability to link and critically analyse theory and practice where appropriate.
80-89%	An excellent, critical and systematic demonstration of understanding in all key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Evidence throughout of the ability to synthesise and interpret complex concepts to provide a compelling argument and discussion. Very good structure and presentation, with confident use of academic language and grounded in a relevant and extensive selection of source materials.  Excellent use of appropriate analytical and research methods and fully addresses ethical considerations.  Excellent ability to link and critically analyse theory and practice where appropriate.
70-79%	An excellent, critical and organised demonstration of understanding in all key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Evidence throughout of the ability to synthesise and interpret diverse concepts to provide a sound argument and discussion. Good structure and presentation, with fluent use of academic language and grounded in an appropriate and comprehensive selection of source materials. Very effective use of appropriate analytical and research methods and consideration of ethical implications.  Very good ability to link and critically analyse theory and practice where appropriate.
60-69%	A proficient, clearly stated and analytical demonstration of understanding in all key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Evidence of the ability to integrate and analyse diverse concepts in a rational and logical argument and discussion. Well structured and clearly presented work, with fluent use of academic language and utilising a relevant and extensive range of source materials. Effective use of appropriate analytical and research methods and consideration of ethical issues.  Good ability to link and critically analyse theory and practice where appropriate.
50-59%	An acceptable and substantiated demonstration of understanding in all key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Evidence of the ability to integrate and analyse diverse concepts in a reasoned and valid argument and discussion. Adequately structured and presented work, with clear use of academic language and reference to a sufficient range of relevant source materials. Adequate use of appropriate analytical and research methods and does address ethical considerations.  Effective linking of theory and practice where appropriate.
40-49%	A limited, insufficient and/or inaccurate understanding in key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Insufficient evidence of ability to integrate and analyse concepts to provide a valid discussion. Unacceptably structured and presented work, with insufficient use of academic language and conventions. A limited range of source materials is used. Limited or ineffective use of analytical and research methods and limited coverage of ethical considerations.  Inadequate linking of theory and practice where applicable.
30-39%	A descriptive and/or narrative account, with little critical and/or flawed understanding of key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Insufficient evidence of ability to discuss fundamental concepts. Unclear and and/or unevidenced argument and discussion. Poorly structured and presented work, with little use of academic language and conventions. A narrow and/or inappropriate range of source materials and analytical and research methods is used. Failure to identify ethical considerations and to link theory and practice where applicable.
0-29%	A weakly descriptive and/or narrative account, with no analytical content and/or significant inaccuracies in understanding of key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Little or no evidence of research and the ability to discuss fundamental concepts. No awareness of ethical issues. Unclear and unsourced arguments and discussion. Flawed structure and presentation, with negligible attention to academic language or conventions. Some or all source materials are unreferenced and/or irrelevant. Failure to link theory and practice where applicable.

 

 

 

 

Feedback File

STUDENT
ID		Name
MODULE
Code	CEN4017	Leader	Manu Ramegowda
Title	Risk Management in Project
ASSESSMENT
Title	Risk Management			Weighting	60%

 

HIGH QUALITY INDICATORS	GRADE/CLASSIFICATION					POOR QUALITY INDICATORS
	A Excellent 1st	B Very Good 2i	C Good 2ii	D Satisfactory 3rd	F Fail

 

Structure: Includes an introduction, main body and conclusion with effective use of paragraphs, fluent and succinct writing.	☐	☐	☐	☐	☐	The essay lacks structure, missing key sections and unnecessarily repetitive.
Subject Knowledge: The essay relevant to the topic. The content is factually correct.	☐	☐	☐	☐	☐	Much of the content is factually inaccurate or irrelevant to the title.
Analysis and Argument: Relevant content with logically developed and well synthesised explanations.	☐	☐	☐	☐	☐	Superficial treatment of the topic. Key points lack explanations and are confusing.
Use of Evidence: The essay is based on evidence from multiple peer reviewed sources. Full acknowledgement of sources integrated throughout.	☐	☐	☐	☐	☐	The essay is based on limited and inappropriate sources of information. Inadequate inclusion and acknowledgement of sources.

A = 100-70%, B = 69-60%, C = 59-50%, D = 49-40%, F = 39-0%

ENGLISH AND PRESENTATION (the following areas need care and attention)
Grammar	☐	Paragraphing	☐	Citation	☐
Spelling	☐	Figures and Tables	☐	References	☐

 

Further Comments

By completing this module, you can use below CV Skills: ·         Good Analytical, technical, relationship management and communication skills ·         Provide advice, guidance and support to technical colleagues to develop knowledge and understanding of risk in engineering projects and business ·         Good understanding on the use of advance spreadsheet technique to assist with project execution and controlling stages. ·         Can facilitate the identification and response of project risk with mentoring project staff on aspects of the risk management process. ·         An enthusiastic team player, able to work with flexibility