Risk Management in Projects

MSc PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Risk Management in Projects

The assignment is 100% of your Module Assessment. 

Submission Date 7th May 2019,End of the Day

You must adhere strictly to the word specified for each question.

Marks will be awarded based on the following criteria: 

• Your understanding of the main themes of the lectures. All questions are equally marked, each 20 marks
• All fonts should be Arial Style, 1.5 sentence spacing, Justify, Main Heading 16, Sub-Heading 14, Body-12 font size. Please adhere to report requirement 
• Evidence that you have read additional material and refer (using references) to the contributions from relevant authors in the field.
• Clear structure and presentation of the computer generated outputs and their analysis i.e. professional technical report layout should be adopted
• Report should be in .doc or .docx and only one .xls should be submitted. The .pdf file are not accepted. E-submission
• Report should have each question outcome and Learning outcomes mapping sheet
• Citation and references (Harvard Style) are very critical for all parts of the Assignment (if required).
•  All answers, drawing (including decision tree, pay-offs matrices) should be word processed.
• You are expected to submit the excel sheet. You are required to export all the results to word document.
• If you need 7-day extension, you can apply for short-extension form available on blackboard. If you need more than 7 days, you need to fill long-extension form and the decision will be made by School. 

Question 1

ABC Computer Company is considering submission of a bid for a government contract to provide 10,000 specialized computers for use in computer-aided design. There is only one other potential bidder for this contract, Complex Computers, Inc., and the low bidder will receive the contract. ABC's bidding decision is complicated by the fact that ABC is currently working on a new process to manufacture the computers. If this process works as hoped, then it may substantially lower the cost of making the computers. However, there is some chance that the new process will actually be more expensive than the current manufacturing process. Unfortunately, ABC will not be able to determine the cost of the new process without actually using it to manufacture the computers. If ABC decides to bid, it will make one of three bids: $9,500 per computer, $8,500 per computer, or $7,500 per computer. Complex Computers is certain to bid, and it is equally likely that Complex will bid $10,000, $9,000, or $8,000 per computer. If ABC decides to bid, then it will cost $1,000,000 to prepare the bid due to the requirement that a prototype computer be included with the bid. This $1,000,000 will be totally lost regardless of whether ABC wins or loses the bidding competition. With ABC's current manufacturing process, it is certain to cost $8,000 per computer to make each computer. With the proposed new manufacturing process, there is a 0.25 probability that the manufacturing cost will be $5,000 per computer and a 0.50 probability that the cost will be $7,500 per computer. Unfortunately, there is also a 0.25 probability that the cost will be $8,500 per computer.

Develop a decision tree and EVM. Should ABC Computer Company submit a bid, and if so, what should they bid per computer?

Bayes` Rule: If an athlete is tested for a certain type of drug usage (steroids, say), then the test result is either positive or negative. However, these tests are never perfect. Some athletes who are drug-free test positive and some who are drug users test negative. We assume that 5% of all athletes use drugs, 3% of all test on drugfree athletes yield false positives and 7% of all test on drug users yield false negatives. Suppose a typical athlete is tested. If this athletes tests positive, are we sure that he is a drug user? If he tests negative, are we sure, he does not use drugs? 

Assume, D and ND denote that a randomly chosen athlete is or is not a drug user, and let T+ and T- indicate a positive or negative test results. (The outcomes D and ND corresponds to A and Not A and either T+ or T- corresponds to B in Bayes` Rule).

Part 1-Outcomes	Page Number
Introduction to problem
Decisions Tree without EMV
EMV with Decision Tree and Discussion
Final Decision and Discussion
Byes Rule problem
Byes Rule two outcomes and discussion

Question 2: 

In Week 5 and 6(using the Decision Making Examples manual), you developed a Optimisation model for Pigskin company, producing footballs. The objective is to find the production schedule that meets demand on time and minimises total production costs and inventory holdings costs. Now, use the fully developed spreadsheet (after completing the manual) and perform below changes on the model,

1. Modify the Pigskin spreadsheet model so that expect for month 6, demand need not be met on time. The only requirement is that all demand be met eventually by the end of month 6. How does this change the optimal production schedule? How does it change the optimal total cost?
2. Modify the Pigskin spreadsheet model so that demand in any of the first 5 months must be met no later than a month late, whereas demand in month 6 must be met on time. For example, the demand in month 3 can be met partly in month 3 and partly in month 4. How does this change the optimal production schedule? How does it change the optimal total cost? 
3. Modify the Pigskin spreadsheet model in the following way. Assume that the timing of demand and production are such that only 70% of the production in a given month can be used to satisfy the demand in that month. The other 30% occurs too late in that month and must be carried as inventory to help satisfy demand in later months. How does this change the optimal production schedule? How does it changes the optimal total cost?

Part 2-Outcomes	Page Number
Provide discussion on the company objective?
Changes to spreadsheet with demand need not be met on time, Changes in the optimal production schedule and optimal total cost and discussion
Changes to spreadsheet with demand in any of the first 5 months, change in the optimal production schedule and optimal total cost and discussion
70% of the production in a given month and 30% occurs too late in that month, changes in the optimal production schedule and optimal total cost and discussion

Question 3: 

GulfGulf is a small family-run company in the United Arab Emirate. It manufactures golfing equipment aimed at the increasing demand, primarily from tourists coming for golfing holidays in the gulf region. The company has decided to manufacture two new products: a medium-priced golf bag and a more up-market, expensive golf bag. The company`s products are priced in $ given its international customer base. The company`s distributor is enthusiastic about the new product line and has agreed to buy all the golf bag the company produces over the next three months. After a thorough investigation of the steps involved in manufacturing a golf bag, management determined that each golf bag produced will require the following four operations:

1.  Cutting and dyeing the material needed
2.  Sewing
3.  Finishing (inserting, umbrella holder, club separators, etc.)
4.  Inspection and packaging 

	Production time(hours)
Department	Standard bag	Deluxe Bag
Cutting and dyeing	7/10	1
Sewing	1/2	5/6
Finishing	1	2/3
Inspection and packaging	1/10	1/4

After studying departmental workload projections, the director of manufacturing estimates that 630 hours for Cutting and dyeing, 600 hours for sewing, 708 hours for finishing and 135 hours for inspection and packing will be available for the production of golf bags during the next three months. Accounts department arrives at prices for both bags that will result in a profit contribution of $10 for every standard bag and $9 for every deluxe bag produced.

1.  How many of the two types of golf bag should it manufacture in order to maximize profit contribution? Use a graph paper to find the feasible region and to find the maximum number of standard and deluxe bags to produce?
2. Produce an Excel model and use Solver to replicate the hand calculation.

Part 3-Outcomes	Page Number
Problem statement
Discussion data, constraints type and objectives
Analytical equations with condition forms
Co-ordinates for graphs, Graphical representation, Feasible region
hatching
Final number for standard and deluxe bag and discussion
Spread sheet model and solver solution

Question 4

Refer to the Table 1 and do the following:

1. Calculate the Expected activity time, 
2. Develop the Network diagram using the Expected activity time and use PERT Analysis to know the mean and Sd of the project. 
3. Based on these estimates and the resultant expected project duration of 44 weeks. The executive committee wants to know what is the probability of completing the project before a scheduled time of 46 weeks? 
4. What is the probability that the project lasts more than 46 weeks? 
5. What would be the completion time under which for the project has 85% probability of completing? 6. 
6. How do you measure project risk exposure? Explain and propose ways to reduce the project risk exposure

Table 1: All O,ML,P are in Weeks. 

Activity	Description	Optimistic Duration	Most Likely Duration	Pessimistic Duration	Immediate Predecessor
A	Set up the project acquisition team	1	2	3
B	Write down the software requirements	1	2	3	A
C	Develop a contractor evaluation grid that will be used to evaluate proposals	0.5	1	1.5	B
D	Identify and select potential contractors	0.5	1	1.5	A
E	Develop and send out a request for proposal to potential contractors	3	4	5	B,D
F	Audit candidate contractors, select one contractor, negotiate and sign an agreement	1	2	3	C,E
G	Prepare the definition of functional specifications	3	5	7	F
H	Develop a software testing plan	1	2	3	G
I	Software customization phase I	10	12	14	G
J	Purchase and install the hardware	1	2	3	G
K	Test the first release	0.5	1	1.5	H,I,J
L	Develop a training plan for key users	0.5	1	1.5	K
M	Software customization phase II	4	6	8	K
N	Test the second release	0.5	1	1.5	M
O	Train Key users	1	2	3	L,N
P	Software customization phase II	1.5	3	4.5	N
Q	Test the final release	1	2	3	P
R	Software deployment and project sign-of	2	4	6	Q

Part 4-Outcomes	Page Number
Simple Excel model with description
Project Duration, mean of the project, Sd of the Project,
Probability of before and more than 46 weeks
The project has 85% probability of completing
Project risk exposure discussion

Question 5 

Read the attached paper (specially paper 2) carefully and develop the following:

1. Project network of the example given in the paper using spread sheet. You can show it in table format or network diagram view.
2. Incorporate the methodologies of risk factors discussed in the paper, in your project model (using spreadsheet). Explain the procedure of developing the project model and discuss on the risk methodologies used in the paper.
3. Compare the results of your model with results in the paper and provide comments. 
4. If distribution of the weather risk factor is modelled using uniform distribution, discuss and critically comment on the new results as compared to Point 3. 
5. Conduct sensitivity analysis to identify the influence of different risks on project durations and critical review the outcome. 

*Use Triangle Distribution for Event Distribution on the paper 2. (Maximum 2000 words for all questions)

Part 4-Outcomes	Page Number
Excel model with description, Network Diagram with all values
Simulation model with all the tables and probabilities, descriptions provided with @RISK inputs and outputs
Result comparison discussion with paper, results representation and analysis
Change in distribution, Uniform distribution and effect on project duration and distribution properties discussion
Sensitivity analysis with discussion

Learning Outcomes Mapping Sheet

ID	Learning Outcomes	Pages
L1	Communicate complex academic and professional issues clearly to specialist and nonspecialist audiences.
L2	Demonstrate competency in the numeracy and IT skills in ways that are appropriate to the professional context of project management
L3	Collaborate effectively with others in ways appropriate to the professional context and the demands of project management.
L4	Demonstrate a comprehensive and critical understanding of risk, risk mitigation, probability theory, PERT, MCS and IT application in risk analysis
L5	Demonstrate a systematic and critical understanding within risk mitigation and understanding of how techniques are used to interpret the risk factors in projects.
L6	Integrate and synthesise diverse knowledge, evidence, concepts theory and practice to resolve the risk in projects
L7	Make logical and arguable conclusions on the basis of incomplete and/or contested data in the Simulation, MCS and Sensitivity analysis in projects or management
L8	Demonstrate technical skills on probability theory, distributions, and data analysis and propose collective suggestion at a professional or equivalent level.
L9	Can act autonomously in identifying, adopting and implementing techniques, balance, write and evaluate outcomes in risk relating to project management at a professional or equivalent level.
L10	Operate ethically in a complex and unpredictable and specialised situation with a critical understanding of the issues governing good
	practice in the field

University Assessment Marking Criteria  

Band	FHEQ level 7 (Level M) Criteria
90-100%	An excellent critical and complete demonstration of understanding in all key areas of knowledge relevant to the work and demonstrating an innovative and creative approach. Evidence throughout the work of a sustained ability to synthesise and interpret complex concepts, to make inferences and to provide an original and/or compelling argument and discussion. Excellent structure and immaculate presentation, with cogent use of academic language and grounded in a pertinent and substantial selection of source materials. Excellent use of appropriate analytical and research methods and addresses ethical considerations in an informed and perceptive manner. Exceptional ability to link and critically analyse theory and practice where appropriate.
80-89%	An excellent, critical and systematic demonstration of understanding in all key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Evidence throughout of the ability to synthesise and interpret complex concepts to provide a compelling argument and discussion. Very good structure and presentation, with confident use of academic language and grounded in a relevant and extensive selection of source materials. Excellent use of appropriate analytical and research methods and fully addresses ethical considerations. Excellent ability to link and critically analyse theory and practice where appropriate.
70-79%	An excellent, critical and organised demonstration of understanding in all key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Evidence throughout of the ability to synthesise and interpret diverse concepts to provide a sound argument and discussion. Good structure and presentation, with fluent use of academic language and grounded in an appropriate and comprehensive selection of source materials. Very effective use of appropriate analytical and research methods and consideration of ethical implications. Very good ability to link and critically analyse theory and practice where appropriate.
60-69%	A proficient, clearly stated and analytical demonstration of understanding in all key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Evidence of the ability to integrate and analyse diverse concepts in a rational and logical argument and discussion. Well structured and clearly presented work, with fluent use of academic language and utilising a relevant and extensive range of source materials. Effective use of appropriate analytical and research methods and consideration of ethical issues. Good ability to link and critically analyse theory and practice where appropriate.
40-49%	A limited, insufficient and/or inaccurate understanding in key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Insufficient evidence of ability to integrate and analyse concepts to provide a valid discussion. Unacceptably structured and presented work, with insufficient use of academic language and conventions. A limited range of source materials is used. Limited or ineffective use of analytical and research methods and limited coverage of ethical considerations. Inadequate linking of theory and practice where applicable.
30-39%	A descriptive and/or narrative account, with little critical and/or flawed understanding of key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Insufficient evidence of ability to discuss fundamental concepts. Unclear and and/or unevidenced argument and discussion. Poorly structured and presented work, with little use of academic language and conventions. A narrow and/or inappropriate range of source materials and analytical and research methods is used. Failure to identify ethical considerations and to link theory and practice where applicable.
0-29%	A weakly descriptive and/or narrative account, with no analytical content and/or significant inaccuracies in understanding of key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Little or no evidence of research and the ability to discuss fundamental concepts. No awareness of ethical issues. Unclear and unsourced arguments and discussion. Flawed structure and presentation, with negligible attention to academic language or conventions. Some or all source materials are unreferenced and/or irrelevant. Failure to link theory and practice where applicable.

Feedback File

Student
ID	Name
Module
Code	CEN4017	Leader	Manu Ramegowda
Title	Risk Management in Project
ASSESSMENT
Title	Risk Management			Weighting	60%

HIGH QUALITY INDICATORS

GRADE/CLASSIFICATION A Excellent1st B VeryGood 2 C Good2ii D Satisfactory 3rd F  Fa

POOR QUALITY INDICATORS

Structure: Includes an introduction, main body and conclusion with effective use of paragraphs, fluent and succinct writing.	☐	☐	☐	☐	☐	The essay lacks structure, missing key sections and unnecessarily repetitive.
Subject Knowledge: The essay relevant to the topic. The content is factually correct.	☐	☐	☐	☐	☐	Much of the content is factually inaccurate or irrelevant to the title.
Analysis and Argument: Relevant content with logically developed and well synthesised explanations.	☐	☐	☐	☐	☐	Superficial treatment of the topic. Key points lack explanations and are confusing.
Use of Evidence: The essay is based on evidence from multiple peer reviewed sources. Full acknowledgement of sources integrated throughout.	☐	☐	☐	☐	☐	The essay is based on limited and inappropriate sources of information. Inadequate inclusion and acknowledgement of sources.

A = 100-70%, B = 69-60%, C = 59-50%, D = 49-40%, F = 39-0%

ENGLISH AND PRESENTATION (the following areas need care and attention)
Grammar	☐	Paragraphing	☐	Citation	☐
Spelling	☐	Figures and Tables	☐	References	☐

Further Comments

By completing this module, you can use below CV Skills: Good Analytical, technical, relationship management and communication skills Provide advice, guidance and support to technical colleagues to develop knowledge and understanding of risk in engineering projects and business Good understanding on the use of advance spreadsheet technique to assist with project execution and controlling stages. Can facilitate the identification and response of project risk with mentoring project staff on aspects of the risk management process.     An enthusiastic team player, able to work with flexibility