You must adhere s trictly
to the word specified for each question. Marks will be awarded based on the
following criteria:
·
Your
understanding of the main themes of the lectures. All questions are equally marked, each 20 marks.
·
All fonts should
be Arial Style, 1.5 sentence spacing, Justify, Main Heading 16, Sub-Heading 14,
Body-12 font size. Please adhere to report requirement
·
Evidence that you
have read additional material and refer (using references) to the contributions
from relevant authors in the field.
·
Clear structure
and presentation of the computer generated outputs and their analysis i.e. professional technical report layout should
be adopted.
·
Report should be
in .doc or .docx and only one .xls should be submitted. The .pdf file are
not accepted. E-submission
·
R
eport should have
each question outcome and Learning outcomes mapping
s heet
·
Citation and
references (Harvard Style) are very critical for all parts of the Assignment (if required).
·
All
answers, drawing (including decision tree, pay-offs matrices) should be word processed.
·
You
are expected to submit the excel sheet. You are required to export all the results to word document.
·
If
you need 7-day extension, you can apply for short-extension form available on
blackboard. If you need more than 7 days, you need to fill long-extension form
and the decision will be made by School.
Question 1
ABC Computer Company is considering submission of a bid
for a government contract to provide 10,000 specialized computers for use in
computer-aided design. There is only
one other potential bidder for this contract, Complex Computers, Inc., and the low bidder will receive the
contract. ABC's bidding decision is complicated by the fact that ABC is currently working on a new process to
manufacture the computers. If this
process works as hoped, then it may substantially lower the cost of making the computers. However, there is
some chance that the new process will actually
be more expensive than the current manufacturing process. Unfortunately, ABC
will not be able to determine the cost of the new process without actually using it to manufacture the computers. If
ABC decides to bid, it will make one of three
bids:
$9,500 per computer, $8,500 per computer, or $7,500 per
computer. Complex Computers is certain
to bid, and it is equally likely
that Complex will bid $10,000,
$9,000, or $8,000 per computer. If ABC decides to bid,
then it will cost $1,000,000 to prepare
the bid due to the requirement that a prototype computer be included with the bid. This $1,000,000 will be
totally lost regardless of whether ABC wins or loses the bidding competition.
With ABC's current manufacturing process, it is certain to cost $8,000 per computer to make each computer. With the
proposed new manufacturing process,
there is a 0.25 probability that the manufacturing cost will be
$5,000 per computer and a 0.50 probability that the cost
will be $7,500 per computer. Unfortunately, there is also a
0.25 probability that the cost will be $8,500
per computer.
Develop a decision tree and EVM. Should ABC Computer
Company submit a bid, and if so, what should they bid per computer?
B ayes` Rule: If an athlete is tested for a certain type of drug usage
(steroids, say),
then the test result is either positive or negative.
However, these tests are never perfect.
Some athletes who are drug-free test positive and some who are drug users test
negative. We assume that 5% of all athletes use drugs, 3% of all test on drug-
free athletes yield false positives and 7% of all test on drug users yield false negatives. Suppose a typical athlete
is tested. If this athletes tests positive, are we sure that he is a
drug user? If he tests negative, are we sure, he does not use drugs?
Assume, D and ND denote that a randomly chosen athlete
is or is not a drug user, and let T+ and T- indicate a positive or negative
test results. (The outcomes D and ND corresponds to A and Not A and either T+
or T- corresponds to B in Bayes` Rule).
Part 1-Outcomes Page
Number
Introduction to
problem
Decisions Tree
without EMV
EMV with Decision Tree and Discussion Final Decision and Discussion
Byes Rule problem
Byes Rule two outcomes and
discussion
(maximum 500 words)
Question 2:
In Week 5 and 6(using the Decision Making Examples
manual), you developed a Optimisation
model for Pigskin company, producing
footballs. The objective is to find
the production schedule that meets demand on time and minimises total production costs and inventory
holdings costs. Now, use the fully developed spreadsheet (after completing the
manual) and perform below changes on the model,
1.
Modify the Pigskin spreadsheet
model so that expect for month 6, demand need
not be met on time. The only requirement is that all demand be met eventually
by the end of month 6. How does this change the optimal production schedule? How does it change the optimal
total cost?
2.
Modify the Pigskin spreadsheet
model so that demand in any of the first 5 months must be met no later than a
month late, whereas demand in month 6 must be met on time. For example, the
demand in month 3 can be met partly in
month 3 and partly in month 4. How does this change the optimal production schedule? How does it change the optimal
total cost?
3.
Modify the Pigskin spreadsheet
model in the following way. Assume that the
timing of demand and production are such that only 70% of the production
in a given month can be used to satisfy the demand in that month. The other 30%
occurs too late in that month and must be carried as inventory to help satisfy demand in later months. How
does this change the optimal production schedule? How does it changes the
optimal total cost?
Part
2-Outcomes
Provide discussion on the company objective?
Changes to spreadsheet with demand
need not be met on time, Changes in the
optimal production schedule and optimal
total cost and discussion
Changes to spreadsheet with demand in any of the first 5 months, change in the
optimal production schedule and optimal
total cost and discussion
70% of the production in a given month and 30% occurs too late in
that month, changes in the optimal production schedule and optimal total cost
and discussion
Page Number
(maximum 500 words)
Question 3:
GulfGulf is a small family-run company in the United
Arab Emirate. It manufactures golfing equipment aimed at the increasing demand,
primarily from tourists coming for golfing
holidays in the gulf region. The company has decided to manufacture two new
products: a medium-priced golf bag and a more up-market, expensive golf bag. The company`s products are priced in
$ given its international customer base. The
company`s distributor is enthusiastic about the new product line and has
agreed to buy all the golf bag the company produces over the next three months.
After a thorough investigation of
the steps involved in manufacturing a golf bag,
management determined that each golf bag produced will require the
following four operations:
1.
Cutting and dyeing the material needed
2.
Sewing
3.
Finishing (inserting, umbrella holder, club
separators, etc.)
4.
Inspection and packaging
Department
Cutting and
dyeing
Production
time(hours)
Standard bag Deluxe Bag
7/10 1
Sewing Finishing
Inspection and packaging
1/2
1
1/10
5/6
2/3
1/4
After studying departmental workload projections, the
director of manufacturing estimates
that 630 hours for Cutting and dyeing, 600 hours for sewing, 708 hours for finishing and 135 hours for inspection
and packing will be available for the production of golf bags during the next
three months. Accounts department arrives at prices for both bags that will
result in a profit contribution of $10 for every standard bag and $9 for every deluxe bag produced.
1.
How many of the two types of golf
bag should it manufacture in order to maximize profit contribution? Use a
graph paper to find the feasible region and to find the maximum number of standard
and deluxe bags to produce?
2.
Produce an Excel model and use Solver to replicate
the hand calculation.
Part 3-Outcomes Page
Number
Problem
statement
Discussion data,
constraints type and objectives
Analytical equations with condition forms
Co-ordinates for graphs, Graphical representation, Feasible region
(maximum 500 words)
Question 4
Refer to the Table 1 and do the following:
1. Calculate the
Expected activity time,
2.
Develop the Network diagram using the Expected
activity time and use PERT Analysis
to know the mean and Sd of the project.
3.
Based on these estimates and the resultant expected
project duration of 44 weeks. The
executive committee wants to know what is the probability of completing the
project before a scheduled time of 46 weeks?
4. What is the
probability that the project lasts more than 46 weeks?
5.
What would be the completion time under which for
the project has 85% probability of
completing?
6.
How do you measure project risk exposure? Explain
and propose ways to reduce the
project risk exposure.
(maximum
500 words)
Table 1: All
O,ML,P are in Weeks.
Most
Activi ty
A B
C D
E
F G
Description
Set up the
project acquisition team
Write down the
software requirements
Develop a contractor evaluation grid that will be used to evaluate
proposals Identify and select potential contractors
Develop and send
out a request for proposal to potential contractors
Audit candidate
contractors, select one contractor, negotiate and sign an agreement
Prepare the
definition of
Optimistic
Duration
1
1
0.5
0.5
3
1
3
Likely
Durati on
2
2
1
1
4
2
5
Pessimisti c Duration
3
3
1.5
1.5
5
3
7
Immediate
Predecessor
A B A
B,D
C,E F
Part 4-Outcomes
Simple Excel model with description
Project
Duration, mean of the project, Sd of the Project,
Probability of
before and more than 46 weeks
The project has
85% probability of completing
Project risk
exposure discussion
Page
Number
Q uestion 5
Read the
attached paper (specially paper 2) carefully and develop the following:
1.
Project network of the example given in the paper
using spread sheet. You can show it
in table format or network diagram view.
2.
Incorporate the methodologies of risk factors
discussed in the paper, in your project model (using spreadsheet). Explain the
procedure of developing the project model and discuss on the risk methodologies
used in the paper.
3.
Compare the results of your model with results in
the paper and provide comments.
4.
If distribution of the weather risk factor is
modelled using uniform distribution, discuss and critically comment on the new
results as compared to Point 3.
5.
Conduct sensitivity analysis to identify the
influence of different risks on project
durations and critical review the outcome.
*Use Triangle Distribution
for Event Distribution on the paper 2. (Maximum 2000 words for all questions)
Part 5-Outcome
Excel model with description, Network Diagram with all values
Simulation model with all the tables and probabilities, descriptions
provided with @RISK inputs and outputs
Result comparison discussion with paper, results representation and
analysis
Change in distribution, Uniform distribution
and effect on project duration and
distribution properties discussion
Sensitivity analysis with discussion
Page Number
L earning
Outcomes Mapping Sheet
I D
Learning Outcomes
Pages
Communicate
complex academic and professional issues clearly to specialist and non-
L1 specialist audiences.
Demonstrate
competency in the numeracy and IT skills in ways that are appropriate to the
L2 professional context of
project management
Collaborate
effectively with others in ways appropriate to the professional context and the
L3 demands of project
management.
L4
L5
L6
L7
L8
L9
L10
Demonstrate a comprehensive and critical understanding of risk, risk
mitigation, probability theory, PERT, MCS and IT application in risk analysis
Demonstrate a systematic and critical understanding within risk
mitigation and understanding of how techniques are used to interpret the risk
factors in projects.
Integrate and synthesise diverse knowledge, evidence, concepts
theory and practice to resolve the
risk in projects
Make logical and
arguable conclusions on the basis of incomplete and/or contested data in the
Simulation, MCS and Sensitivity analysis in projects or management
Demonstrate
technical skills on probability theory, distributions, and data analysis and
propose collective suggestion at a professional or equivalent level.
Can act
autonomously in identifying, adopting and implementing techniques, balance,
write and evaluate outcomes in risk relating to project management at a
professional or equivalent
level.
Operate
ethically in a complex and unpredictable and specialised situation with a
critical understanding of the issues governing good
U niversity
Assessment Marking Criteria
Band
90-100%
80-89%
70-79%
60-69%
FHEQ level 7 (Level M)
Criteria
An excellent critical and complete demonstration of understanding in
all key areas of knowledge relevant to the work and demonstrating an innovative
and creative approach. Evidence throughout the work of a sustained ability to
synthesise and interpret complex concepts, to make inferences and to provide an
original and/or compelling argument and discussion. Excellent structure and
immaculate presentation, with cogent use of academic language and grounded in a
pertinent and substantial selection of source materials. Excellent use of
appropriate analytical and research methods and addresses ethical
considerations in an informed and perceptive manner.
Exceptional ability to link and critically analyse theory and
practice where appropriate.
An excellent, critical and systematic demonstration of understanding
in all key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Evidence
throughout of the ability to synthesise and interpret complex
concepts to provide a compelling argument and discussion. Very good structure
and presentation, with confident use of academic language and grounded in a
relevant and extensive selection of source materials.
Excellent use of appropriate analytical and research
methods and fully addresses ethical considerations. Excellent ability to link
and critically analyse theory and practice where appropriate.
An excellent, critical and organised demonstration of understanding
in all key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Evidence throughout of the
ability to synthesise and interpret diverse concepts to provide a sound
argument and discussion. Good structure and presentation,
with fluent use of academic language and grounded in an appropriate
and comprehensive selection of source materials. Very effective use of
appropriate analytical and research methods and consideration of ethical
implications. Very good ability to link and critically analyse theory and
practice where appropriate.
A proficient, clearly stated and analytical demonstration of
understanding in all key areas of knowledge relevant to the work.
50-59%
40-49%
30-39%
0-29%
Evidence of the ability to integrate and analyse diverse concepts in
a rational and logical argument and discussion. Well structured and clearly
presented work, with fluent use of academic language and utilising a relevant
and extensive range of source materials. Effective use of appropriate
analytical and research methods and consideration of ethical issues. Good
ability to link and critically analyse theory and practice where appropriate.
An acceptable and substantiated demonstration of understanding in all
key areas of knowledge relevant to the work. Evidence of the ability to integrate and analyse diverse
concepts in a reasoned and valid argument and discussion. Adequately structured
and presented work, with clear use of academic language and reference to a
sufficient range of relevant source materials. Adequate use of appropriate
analytical and research methods and does address ethical considerations.
Effective linking of theory and practice where appropriate.
A limited, insufficient and/or inaccurate understanding in key areas
of knowledge relevant to the work. Insufficient evidence of ability to
integrate and analyse concepts to provide a valid
discussion.
Unacceptably structured and presented work, with insufficient use of
academic language and conventions. A limited range of source materials is used.
Limited or ineffective use of analytical and research methods and limited
coverage of ethical considerations. Inadequate
linking of theory and practice where applicable.
A descriptive and/or narrative account, with little critical and/or
flawed understanding of key areas of knowledge relevant to the work.
Insufficient evidence of ability to discuss
fundamental concepts.
Unclear and and/or unevidenced argument and discussion. Poorly
structured and presented work, with little use of academic language and
conventions. A narrow and/or inappropriate range of source materials and
analytical and research methods is used. Failure to
identify ethical considerations and to link theory and practice
where applicable.
A weakly descriptive and/or narrative account, with no analytical
content and/or significant inaccuracies in understanding of key areas of knowledge relevant to the work.
Little or no evidence of research and the ability to discuss fundamental
concepts. No awareness of ethical issues. Unclear and unsourced arguments and
discussion.
Flawed structure and presentation, with negligible attention to
academic language or conventions. Some or all source materials are unreferenced and/or irrelevant. Failure
to link theory and practice
where applicable.
Feedback File
STUDENT
ID Name
MODULE
Code CEN4017 Leade
r
Manu Ramegowda
Title Risk Management in
Project
ASSESSMENT
Title Risk
Management Weightin
g
60%
A = 100-70%, B =
69-60%, C = 59-50%, D = 49-40%, F = 39-0%
